Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate to Near Zero

Published: December 16, 2008

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve entered a new era on Tuesday, setting its benchmark interest rate so low that it will have to reach for new and untested tools in fighting both the recession and downward pressure on consumer prices.

The New York Times

Going further than analysts anticipated, the central bank said it had cut its target for the overnight federal funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, a record low, bringing the United States to the zero-rate policies that Japan used for six years in its own fight against deflation.

The move to a zero rate, which affects how much banks charge when they lend their reserves to each other, is to some degree symbolic. Though the Fed's target had had previously been 1 percent, demand for interbank lending has been so low that the actual Fed funds rate has hovering just above zero for the past month.

Far more important than the rate itself, the Fed bluntly declared that it was ready to move to a new phase of monetary policy in which it prints vast amounts of money for a wide array of lending programs aimed at financial institutions, businesses and consumers.

"The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability," the central bank said in its statement. Those tools include buying of "large quantities" of debt and mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by government-sponsored companies like Fannie Mae; commercial debt for businesses and consumer lending, and longer-term Treasury securities.

The Federal Reserve has already embarked on most of the programs it cited, but officials made it clear that they are ready to expand them as much as necessary, and add new ones, to fight off a recession that has become deeper and more ominous in the past two months.

The central bank acknowledged that recession is more severe than officials had thought at their last meeting in October. "The committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time," it said.

A raft of new data on Tuesday offered fresh evidence that the central bank faces little danger that its easy-money policies will stoke inflation. Indeed, the data reinforced the impression that the much more immediate risk is deflation - a widespread and disruptive decline in consumer prices.

The federal government reported on Tuesday that the consumer price index fell 1.7 percent in November, the steepest monthly drop since the government began tracking prices in 1947. The decline was largely driven by the recent plunge in energy prices, but even the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, was essentially zero.

With less than two weeks before Christmas, retailers from Saks Fifth Avenue to Wal-Mart have been slashing prices to draw in consumers, who have sharply reduced their spending over the last six months. On Tuesday, Banana Republic offered customers $50 off on any purchases that total $125. DKNY offered customers $50 off for any purchase totaling $250.

Ian Shepherdson, an analyst who follows the United States economy for High Frequency Economics, said falling energy prices were likely to bring the overall consumer price index to below zero in January.

Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already outlined a range of unorthodox new tools that the central bank can use to keep stimulating the economy once the federal funds rate effectively reaches zero.

Those techniques include buying vast amounts of longer-term Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities issued by government-sponsored companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and commercial debt issued by private companies and consumer lenders.

The Federal Reserve has already introduced a slew of lending programs in its effort to revive corporate and consumer lending. Later this month, the Fed will start purchasing $600 billion worth of securities that are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government-sponsored entities. The Fed and the Treasury are also introducing a joint program to buy up securities backed by consumer debt like automobile loans.

All of the new tools amount to printing money in vast new quantities, and the Fed has already started the process. Since September, the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from about $900 billion to more than $2 trillion as the central bank has created new money and lent it out through all its new programs. As soon as the Fed completes its plans to buy up mortgage-backed debt and consumer debt, the balance sheet will be up to about $3 trillion.

"At some point, and without knowing the timing, the Fed is going to have to destroy all that money it is creating," said Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the central bank. "Right now, the crisis is created by the huge demand by banks for hoarding cash. The Fed is providing cash, and the banks want to hoard it. When things start returning to normal, the banks will want to start lending it out. If that much money is left in the monetary base, it would be extremely inflationary."

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

New Low Mortgage Rates: Should You Jump?

Smart Money 12/2/08

In addition to stuffing recipes and football games, another topic is bound to permeate dinner conversations this holiday weekend: the sudden easing of mortgage rates following the government's $800 billion plan to ease consumers' debt load.

The bulk of that government money - $600 billion- will be used by the Federal Reserve to purchase mortgage-related debt held by Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.77, -0.14, -15.38%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.82, -0.02, -2.38%), Ginnie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks over the next several months. The move eased lenders' fears and swiftly sent mortgage rates plunging by almost half a percentage point-though it didn't take long before they started inching higher again.

Even so, rates are now significantly lower than in recent weeks. On Wednesday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down to 5.81%, (Today it is 5.25 to $417,000, and 5.625% to $625,000 with 1 point!!!) while the rate on highly popular 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages clocked in at 5.9%, according to mortgage tracker Bankrate.com. Last week, the average 30-year fixed stood at 6.33%, while the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.18%.

The drop is a seismic shift from the incredibly tight mortgage rates of previous months. Borrowers have been anxiously waiting for some rate relief as the specter of declining home prices, rising foreclosures and a low investor appetite for mortgages continued to loom over the housing market. The hope now is that these lower rates will not only spark a wave of refinancing but also home buying, which could help prop up sagging home values, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, which tracks rates on mortgages and consumer loans.

Some critics say the Federal Reserve's latest move is far from a cure-all, however. "This still doesn't get to the root of the problem," says Ed Mierzwinski, consumer program director for the U.S. Public Interest Research Groups, a consumer advocate. "It's money down a money pit." Without a provision requiring banks to pass along savings in the form of lower rates, or help for homeowners facing foreclosure, the latest bailout is just as limited as the earlier rescue efforts by the government, he says.

While lenders will most likely steer clear of those with low or no credit, homeowners with a solid track record should consider taking advantage of lower rates before it's too late. Here's a primer on what you should know:

QUESTION: Will rates keep going lower?

The recent drop is promising, but it's no guarantee of further declines, says Orawin Velz, associate vice president of economic forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry group. Rates could fluctuate in either direction, depending on how well the government executes its plan. In September, a similar rate plunge occurred after the Fed took control of Fannie and Freddie, but then rates quickly reversed when that move failed to act as a stopgap for industry woes, she says.

QUESTION: Should I refinance now?

"The Fed didn't have a catchy acronym, so I came up with one for them: the 'Really Excellent Financing Initiative,' or RE-FI," jokes HSH's Gumbinger. In other words: Take advantage of those lower rates while you still can.

QUESTION: Should I buy now?

If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy a new home, this could be a great chance to buy before more buyers enter the market and push home prices higher. The combination of plunging home values and lower-rate mortgages will likely incite many buyers to come out of the woodwork. That means the current fire-sale prices on homes may not last. Of course, that kind of stabilization won't happen overnight, says Velz. "People ready to finance [a home] who were priced out of the market [while rates were higher] should think about getting in," she says.

QUESTION: Will lending requirements loosen?

The Fed's new programs do nothing to broaden the availability of credit. Consumers who have excellent credit will benefit most, says Gumbinger. People with decent credit may see some improvement in their ability to afford a loan thanks to lower rates, but those with bad credit or no credit will most likely be out of luck.